18:49 <ELLIOTTCABLE> pikajude: lies, dirty filthy lies

18:50 <ELLIOTTCABLE> ljharb: nope, Autopilot 1.0

18:50 <ELLIOTTCABLE> ljharb: also, AutoPilot 2.0 is a dangerous marketing gamble, not a real thing at all

18:51 <ljharb> what do you mean?

18:52 <ljharb> i've test driven the basic autopilot, and it's awesome, and when my x arrives in a few weeks i'll have enhanced, and then i'll get the full self-drive when it ships.

18:52 <ljharb> but the full selfdriving, barring legal requirements, means i don't even have to sit in the driver's seat to have it take me everywhere

19:10 <pikajude> ELLIOTTCABLE: heck off

19:10 <ELLIOTTCABLE> ljharb: my opinions on this are complex

19:10 <ELLIOTTCABLE> ask me again when I'm up to caring

19:11 <ELLIOTTCABLE> somebody explain impedance to me and why it's different from resistance

19:11 <ELLIOTTCABLE> why did my basic electrical education not even *mention* RF behaviour existing

19:12 <ELLIOTTCABLE> ljharb: ugh tldr I'm very bearish on self-driving cars

19:13 <ELLIOTTCABLE> I absolutely do not believe Tesla has the tech it says it does; ditto Uber

19:14 <ELLIOTTCABLE> I think Musk overpromised (as usual) to 1. drive momentum on the Model III, and 2. drive sales of the X and S in the short term, in combination with the Supercharger announcement

19:15 <ELLIOTTCABLE> (there's a damn-good reason he didn't announce AP2.0 until the last fucking minute w.r.t. shipping vehicles, but he craftily announced the loss of free-for-life Supercharging months ahead of time)

19:16 <ELLIOTTCABLE> (the Xs and Ss bought *right now* are being perceived as the "last ones with life-of-the-vehicle electricity, but that still have full autonomy"; regardless of how untrue that may be. it's sneaky, genius, and vey Musk.)

19:55 <ljharb> ELLIOTTCABLE: yeah that's a very good point

19:55 <ljharb> luckily i was getting one anyways, but i'll fall into the theoretical golden window

19:58 <pikajude> man, everyone can afford a tesla

19:58 <pikajude> what am i doing wrong

19:58 <pikajude> tesla lifestyle

20:14 <alexgordon> it's voting day!

20:14 <alexgordon> I haven't voted

20:16 <alexgordon> ELLIOTTCABLE: I think tesla has the potential for the right software, but I don't think they have the right hardware

20:16 <alexgordon> you can't make a self driving car with only cameras, radar and ultrasonics

20:16 <alexgordon> there's a reason google cars have a huge lidar on the top

20:17 <ljharb> alexgordon: wait aren't you british?

20:17 <alexgordon> thatsthejoke :P

20:17 <ljharb> :-p

20:17 <alexgordon> we had our vote in june

20:17 <alexgordon> trump won :(

20:17 <ljharb> with any luck brexit won't win today

20:18 <alexgordon> well whatever happens, the winner will be unpopular

20:18 <ljharb> yes but in one of the scenarios, the loser won't start twitter wars or whine about it, but the winner will throw a tantrum.

20:20 <alexgordon> so better hope that trump wins?

20:20 <alexgordon> then at least the result won't be in question!

20:23 <ljharb> haha

20:23 <ljharb> that's one way to look at it

20:23 <ljharb> that's the same kind of logic as "well, this religion has the worst fiction of hell, so my odds are better if i choose that!"

20:43 <gnomon> Pascal's Losing Wager

20:44 <pikajude> pascal for people who can't bet good

20:55 <ELLIOTTCABLE> alexgordon: I feel precisely the opposite.

20:57 <ELLIOTTCABLE> If it can be done at all, *at all*, then it can be done as easily with a pair of cameras and radar as it could be done with seventeen cameras, four radars, a LIDAR on top, a LIDAR on bottom, and a dedicated follow-drone and geostationary satellite for each vehicle

20:57 <ELLIOTTCABLE> the problem is that machine learning is Fucking Dumb and terrible at every single goddamn human-related task it's ever been applied to, not a deficit of hardware capabilities or data input.

20:58 <ELLIOTTCABLE> the AP 2.0 refresh was a tactical and marketing decision based on peoples' *perception* of the technical problems … not on the technical problems themselves :P

20:58 <ELLIOTTCABLE> </opinionated rant>

21:02 <ELLIOTTCABLE> The *real thing* that is going to keep Tesla ahead of Google or Über Tech is the 150,000 data-collection devices being actively second-guessed at every turn, in the real world, for five-ish years (at the time the tech matures)

21:34 <pikajude> i think it would be easier to do with a LIDAR on top, a LIDAR on bottom, and a geostationary satellite for each vehicle, personally

21:36 <gnomon> Mandate a radio emitter atop each vehicle deemed street-legal. <- "mandata", if you will.