sipa changed the topic of #bitcoin-wizards to: This channel is for discussing theoretical ideas with regard to cryptocurrencies, not about short-term Bitcoin development | http://bitcoin.ninja/ | This channel is logged. | For logs and more information, visit http://bitcoin.ninja
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<yanmaani>
What are the odds of mining stopping post-halving? Is there any data?
<sipa>
"stopping" ?
<DeanWeen>
hashrate seems to at least stay the same if not go up around halvenings and shortly thereafter in the past: https://miro.medium.com/max/4190/1*YvqgE9q1UBOKT_rPAFH4Ew.png
<DeanWeen>
I saw some retail electricity calculations by country last in Feb 2018: https://www.elitefixtures.com/blog/post/2683/bitcoin-mining-costs-by-country/ ... So that's how much it cost then for the average person to mine. Since then the hashrate has quadrupled and maybe 1 or 2 newer generation of miners has been sold to the market participants. I'm not sure what that means for efficiency vs older mining equipment, but if efficiency
<DeanWeen>
doubled since then, and it became 4x harder to mine, it still costs the average chinese person 2x $3000 to mine a coin. If big miners get electricity for half of that, it still costs them 3k to mine a coin right now. No idea if these numbers are correct guesses, but there seems to be somewhat of a natural theoretical floor for the cost of producing bitcoin when the network is at a given hashrate. In economic theory, marginal cost
<DeanWeen>
tends to equal marginal revenue, so I might venture that it will usually cost $PRICE_OF_BITCOIN to mine one. But also economic calculation begins with demand, so only if people have a use for and increase demand for bitcoin can the price rise.
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<twobtc>
Hello all, we are having a long standing problem generating new addresses using bitcoind. We are only able to generate "legacy" addresses that begin with a "1". We are now running core 19.1, and we have "addresstype=bech32" set in our bitcoin.conf. Has anyone else seen this problem before?
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<sipa>
twobtc: off topic here; try bitcoin.stackexchange.com for community support, or if you suspect there is an actual bug, check the issue tracker (is https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/16178 related?)
<twobtc40>
thank you Sipa. I have posted the question on stack exchange.
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<yanmaani>
sipa: Dropping to zero.
<yanmaani>
If hashrates drop by 50% or so, that's fine, the difficulty will adjust. But if the price plummets by more than a certain amount, X, then you're done for.
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<yanmaani>
Then all miners will find it unprofitable to mine, and then no blocks will be made, and waiting for (2016/0) minutes is not a good way to spend your time
<yanmaani>
DeanWeen: Thanks, so this sort of analysis is what I'm looking for. But this is retail electricity prices, yes?
<yanmaani>
If we look at the effects of exogenous shocks on hashrate, we can see that hashrate now is ~95EH/s, down from a monthly average of ~105EH/s
<DeanWeen>
yamaani: yes.
<DeanWeen>
;;diffchange
<gribble>
Estimated percent change in difficulty this period -26.38889 % given that 106 blocks were found in the last 24h
<DeanWeen>
It seems to be falling
<yanmaani>
In Nov 2018, the price went down from 6500 to 3500
<yanmaani>
hashrate moved from 50 to 35
<yanmaani>
(roughly)
<yanmaani>
There's other confounding effects as well, and it seems like there should be good statistical methods for this
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<yanmaani>
but from those two data points, we can see that 45% loss in value = 10-30% loss in hashrate
<yanmaani>
And I am definitely not going to do TA on hashrates, but I can observe that they've been going up
<yanmaani>
Also, this analysis really should be done with total SHA-256 reward
<yanmaani>
plus total hashrate
<yanmaani>
(Because the chain switching causes annoying sawtooth patterns to appear"
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<yanmaani>
I suppose measuring dhashrate:dreward can be a good approach. Because then the secular trends in hashrate (e.g. power cost going up/down) would manifest as random noise which can be ignored.
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