ELLIOTTCABLE changed the topic of #elliottcable to: #ELLIOTTCABLE — “do something cool, shove it into throats, everyone thinks it's crap, then it's all amazing.” “everything else is just details.”
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<audy>
aw man Unreal Tournament 2004 doesn't work on Mavericks :(
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<jvulc>
Just saw offline dictation in Mavericks. Thought that was a pretty standout feature.
<jvulc>
I never use dictation ... but hey, I can use it offline now.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
4:48 PM <+alexgordon> ...I've been on HN too long
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
4:48 PM <+alexgordon> start to judge things by business model
<purr>
<AAA_awright> Fine I guess you don't want me
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<whitequark>
ELLIOTTCABLE: (events) that actually makes sense, sort of
<whitequark>
I guess I need to understand it better first
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<cuttle>
audy: 2004 called they want their unreal tournament back
<cuttle>
i got him so good
<devyn>
yeah you go micah
<devyn>
tell him
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<devyn>
jvulc: aside from being a desirable feature, it probably also helps Apple evade the NSA there
* whitequark
pokes wayland
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<devyn>
wayland pokes whitequark
<devyn>
"ow, don't do that!"
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<purr>
<Nuck> I would totally go to the book of mormon with a cat-tail buttplug in
<cuttle>
if finding somebody real is your fuckin problem
<cuttle>
bring your girls to the crib, maybe we can solve it
<whitequark>
you know, I'm starting to understand people who send death threats very well
<whitequark>
ever since that fucktard adjacent to me started drilling his fucking walls for eight fucking hours a day
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<cuttle>
whitequark: hahahaha
<whitequark>
lol
<purr>
lol
<whitequark>
a coworker went to sf
<whitequark>
to quote, "where twitter, github and airbnb is just all tire service, niggers and homeless people"
<whitequark>
go america!
<purr>
<Nuck> I've seen some completely nonsensical shit from micah and alex tonight. I'm still trying to decode "let's making a ##paws tubgirl as well" and "somewhy, a mug of bacon"
<yorickpeterse>
wat
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<purr>
<whitequark> fuck, it's so big
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
yorickpeterse: enjoying our wats?
<whitequark>
I wonder what the context was for the last one
<whitequark>
I thought it would be the useful fanservice-y "d'aww girls and guns!!1omg", but it's surprisingly good
<whitequark>
slow-ish and quiet, non stamp-y
<whitequark>
and sad.
<whitequark>
btw ELLIOTTCABLE I was wondering
<whitequark>
y u rich? inheritance?
<yorickpeterse>
pimping
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
it's a sekrit. most popular theories I've heard tend towards something mundane lot illegal involving drugs; but occasionally (although surprisingly regularly) I hear frightened forays into more exotically-illegal, firearms-related criminal pastimes
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
in all reality the most obviously likely scenarios are some past success in an embarrassing field (porn star? porn IT? or maybe some 13-year-old-girl-category fansite?), or some huge and shady inheritance from an obscure branch of the family.
<whitequark>
ehh
<whitequark>
my bets would be on 1) inheritance 2) incredible stroke of luck in... some way or another.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
lottery?
<whitequark>
lottery, or lottery-equivalent.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
pirate treasure.
<whitequark>
could be.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
definitely pirate treasure.
<whitequark>
:)
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Totes gonna lead with that one now. My new favourite.
<whitequark>
awesome.
<whitequark>
so, what I'm actually interested in, is:
<whitequark>
what the fuck should one do with one's savings?
<whitequark>
from what I read so far, index funds
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Hm. No.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
The only thing that can *beat* the market, is intuition or luck. (Which could be one and the same, depending on how you look at it.)
<whitequark>
that's what I understood.
<audy>
bitcoins!
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
I suggest you get good with people, if you're not already; and then personally evaluate investment advisors. Find a few good ones, invest with each according to your perceived quality, and *stick with it*. Getting rich(er) by way of investment is a long-term game, unless you want to experience both Bugattis and homelessness within your lifetime.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
protip, stay away from the sort who invest in mutual funds. Further protip, find older guys, unless you get a super-excellent vibe off of a younger one …
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
… and even then, I mean mid-fifties by “younger.”
<whitequark>
so, you think there are people whose skills allow them to consistently beat the market?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
make sure they've got one, or several, fields that they're insanely knowledgeable in.
<whitequark>
as in, statistics-actually-says-they-do guys?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
not skills. A combination of an ineffable luck or intuition, and the mind/skillset/persistence to *leverage* that talent.
<whitequark>
s,skills,talent,
<whitequark>
any qualities.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
I'm crashing in a moment
<whitequark>
hey, drive more carefully
<whitequark>
crashin' is painful
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
I'm *very* proud of my intuition for financial advice. It's a huge contributor to what's allowing me to *continue* to be rich, while paying very little attention to money matters.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
(And what attention I *do* pay, is to the evaluations I need to make of their performance, instead of trying to work against the market myself)
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
this may sound obvious, but it's hugely important:
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
make sure you find somebody who clicks well *with you*, too. Somebody who can truly grok *your* financial goals, is the very first (and possibly most important) filter.
<whitequark>
hmm
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
they should be able to *clearly* express, after getting to know you, both your interests in risk-levels and diversity, as well as your *reasons* for those interests, whatever they may be … they should also be able to predict your future financial plans, and have some conception of what makes you *happy* (beyond just "a bigger number.")
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
which is more complex than it sounds.
<whitequark>
I see. this is surprisingly similar to developing custom software. :)
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
HAH
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
yes! But that's only because it's similar to everything else, too.
<whitequark>
well, perhaps not-surprisingly.
<whitequark>
yeah.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
You're hiring somebody.
<whitequark>
it's different from hiring, say, a window cleaner.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Them making you *happy*, is always paramount … even over them doing their nominal job.
<whitequark>
but that's nitpicking.
<whitequark>
so.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
If my maid knows me well, she'll realize that I relish doing an intensely thorough job on my expensive crystal-ware cocktail glasses.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
But she'll also realize I don't have a lot of time to do so.
<whitequark>
I guess there would be some amount below which you won't bother. $1k? $10k? $100k?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
So she'll, perhaps, leave them for me to hand-wash, while washing everything else mundane … while perhaps washing *some* of them, if there's a ton left over to do.
<whitequark>
(I'm not saying too much, but I basically started at 0.)
<whitequark>
(maid) heh. that's a whole next level, yes.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
(re: investing? 25k's a widely-touted lower limit to wasting your time with this.)
<whitequark>
mm.
<whitequark>
that's not so bad.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
honestly, though, IMO, you should treat it no different than the way people treat savings accounts; even if you've got 250$ in the bank and a 8$/hr job, you should have a unified investment plan.
<whitequark>
unified ?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
even if that plan is "put 50$ of every paycheck in, until I have the minimum required to open an investment account with <x mutual fund advisor>, ”
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
and so on.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
unified as in "I know what my overall financial goals are, and I know how I'm getting there if nothing changes from now, and I *also* know how I'm getting there if things get substantially worse from now"
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Related note, but a bit more abstract:
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
It's hard to evaluate a maid service if you're a slob. And this you probably, unintuitively, shouldn't hire one.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Similarly, the first step into getting into finding the right investment plan, and the right advisors or companies, is to learn enough to speak the lingo.
<whitequark>
yeah, that's about right.
<whitequark>
I've also been thinking about another thing.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
If you're compfortable with English, Barron's is great; but that's specific to the U.S. markets, for the most part …
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
I'm sure there's similar publications and companies for the foreign markets, which I pay unfortunately little attention to
<whitequark>
a magazine? yeah, that's fine
<whitequark>
well, hm. foreign. russian market. wonder how much one can rely on it?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
not the slightest idea.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Pretty sure I didn't even know there *was* an important Russian exchange
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
but I should have. meh.
<whitequark>
important russian exchange ?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Moscow Exchange.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
I mean, there's the New York, NASDAQ, London, and Tokyo
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Something Australian, and some more shit in the East, all of which are fairly Big Deals.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
but idk other than that.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Yeah. Here we go. Wikipedia sez Shanghai, Hong Kong, Toronto, and Frankfurt, too.
<whitequark>
what makes one important?
<whitequark>
(ugh, horrible lag)
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
mostly? market cap.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
NYSE is by far and away the primary stock exchange, almost everything Important is listed there(*); it's got a market cap of like fifteen trillion
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
next largest is NASDAQ, also American. It's still under ten trillion.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Having just looked up the Moscow exchange, it's at like .8 trillion, which is fledgling by comparison, although still important.
<whitequark>
I see
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Tellingly, it *does* show up on Wikipedia's list of the top twenty most important exchanges.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Just, yeah, I'd never heard of it.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
idfk how the market works in Russia.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
But I suspect the same principles apply:
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
1) our computers, statistical models and mathematics, and logic, are simply not advanced enough to model and predict economic forces yet. we're economic cave-men.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
2) our *brains* are, but we can't directly access that, just as we can't with most things.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
That adds up to a field where intuition actually counts as much as training, or more. Which is rare.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Taking that knowledge, we can apply it anywhere from the school bake-sale, to Moscow, to NYSE: find somebody with that talent: somebody who's developed their sensitivity to that particular brain-model.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
befriend them, and share your hopes and dreams with them.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
very slowly, become very slightly more rich, a very little bit faster than everybody else in the market.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
also known as, 3. profit!
<whitequark>
heh
<whitequark>
does that little bit even matter?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Yes. It's the *relative* bit that matters. And, obviously, good investment habits: turn that little bit over, don't spend it.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
here's the thing:
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
This isn't some thing where you choose badly, option A, and you get a flat 10% boost,
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
or you choose well, option B, and get a flag 10.5% boost.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
instead, you choose well, and you do slightly better than everyone else when the economy is up, hopefully, and slightly less horribly than everybody else when the economy is down. (That sounds like saying the same thing, but it's not.)
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
and, conversely, *you're* doing slightly better on *your* ups, and slightly less bad on *your downs*.
<whitequark>
*my* ups? as in?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
investing badly, especially if you opt for a high-variance, high-"risk" portfolio, has a much better chance of wiping out *so* badly that you screw your life up in some way. (I.e. have your accounts down in the dumps by 28% when you suddenly have your wife get into a horrible car accident, and you desperately need that money for medical treatments.)
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
whereas a *good* approach, that is, putting effort into finding the right fields and advisors, and putting effort into learning enough to connect well with them,
<whitequark>
*cough* that's mitigated by not living in US *cough*
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
will allow you to enter into a higher-variance, and thus higher-long-term-rewards strategy, without as much actual risk to life and limb.
<whitequark>
hm.
<whitequark>
so you could say
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
So: an investment advisor who can manage a solid one point above the market over twenty years … is worth a lot more than “1% more as of twenty years later.”
<whitequark>
that higher-long-term-rewards implies high-variance, but not vice versa?
<whitequark>
so you need an advisor who can find latter which is also former
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
oh, that's a given.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
but luck/
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
FUCKING EMOJI BOARD
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
yes. iPhone, horses, cats, and capybaras are the best approach to wise investment strategy.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
>,<
<joelteon>
why is there a capybara emote?
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
luck/intuition can give you more peace-of-mind, allowing you to swallow higher variance. That's a big deal, because that's also where the Big Bucks lie.
<joelteon>
do you guys know of an app that stores a list of addresses for places you need to go
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
OmniFocus does that.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
But it's no Things.app.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
And it's also like 200$ or some insane shit.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
Or maybe 20$. Idk. Same diff.
<ELLIOTTCABLE>
sleep for me.
<joelteon>
oh, it is $20
<joelteon>
no thanks
<whitequark>
ELLIOTTCABLE: say someone offers you 10% of return per month
<whitequark>
what you'd do?
<joelteon>
oh you can bookmark shit in Maps
<joelteon>
that'll work
<whitequark>
of course a legal, licensed organization, etcetc
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<joelteon>
well, that's the first time i've opened my laptop with a redtube link still open at work
<alexgordon>
lol
<purr>
lol
<whitequark>
meh
<whitequark>
I once showed my coworkers Dead Leaves
<whitequark>
I think they were all collectively embarassed for me