sipa changed the topic of #bitcoin-wizards to: This channel is for discussing theoretical ideas with regard to cryptocurrencies, not about short-term Bitcoin development | http://bitcoin.ninja/ | This channel is logged. | For logs and more information, visit http://bitcoin.ninja
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<aj>
rusty: it looks to me like in the past couple of days, 31% of txns had 10k satoshi as their fee, and another 49.7% (!) had 9999 satoshi as their fee (ie fixed fee independent of size in bytes)
<rusty>
aj: wow, what is producing those?!
* rusty
needs to revisit his heuristics then...
<rusty>
aj: Don't tell me there's some wallet out there advertising lower fees than their competitors? :)
<aj>
rusty: maybe think of it as "not just advertising lower fees, but following through on that promise!" ? >_<
<rusty>
aj: "Now with dynamic fee support*" * - Fees will be adjusted on every new wallet release.
<aj>
rusty: oh, hey, i wonder how many actually blocks have their transactions order by decreasing fee-per-byte
<rusty>
aj: I graphed a recent v4 block, it was exactly as expected.
<rusty>
aj: a few priority txs at the front, then descending fee-per-byte, with about 20 little spikes where a dependent tx immediately followed its parent.
<rusty>
(I cut it from the HK tlk for lack of time, but let me dig it up)
<aj>
rusty: interesting. with CPFP would expect those peaks to be accompanied by troughs...
<aj>
rusty: (also, have you heard of log scales? :)
<rusty>
aj: yes.
<rusty>
aj: log scales are deceptive. Better to zoom in on the data you care about.
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<aj>
rusty: well i'll grant you they don't work so well when some fees are 0, but so long as you think in terms of "they're paying twice/half as much" i don't think they're deceptive...
<rusty>
aj: you always need a big disclaimer on log graphs. Sure, sometimes it's worth it, but generally I want to see the raw, zero-based data *first*, before any massaging like log scale or moving axes.
<bramc>
I'm making it so that valid proofs of inclusion and exclusion are canonical: That is, there's exactly one valid proof of either inclusion or exclusion with no variation possible. I don't know if this property is important for anything, but I can make it happen so I'm doing it.
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<aj>
rusty: oh, huh, median/percentile fees should be calculated by byte number rather than transaction number i guess
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<rusty>
aj: that graph is satoshi-per-kb.
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<aj>
rusty: satoshi-per-kb vs kb right? yeah, that's the right way to do it, but not how i was thinking
<rusty>
aj: Yeah, graphing x axis on byte offset would give a nice representation (area underneath == total fees).
<bramc>
It's a little odd to not be able to say where most of the transactions in the blockchain are coming from even when they have a very obvious commonality. That lends credence to the theory that most of the transactions in the blockchain are garbage.
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<el33th4x0r>
kanzure: thanks for the pointer to the pull request
<el33th4x0r>
"Transmission of signature data becomes optional" this doesn't sound like the right message to send out in a BIP.
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<tulip>
bramc: that's probably not the wrong thought to have.
<tulip>
recently it looks like a miner has removed their IsStandard checks and is mining stunningly large transactions. 568df930d2f7c930c0c31cc13a09f140ee541bd1859b34f59cb2a600609dd84d for example is almost 200KB and has 5000 (!) outputs.
<bramc>
tulip, That's odd, did it have a decent transaction fee?
<tulip>
zero.
<tulip>
it's likely that one was accepted out of band and had the fee paid some other way. there's a good number of crazy large transactions around, and have been for years, which seem to have no objective other than filling blocks.
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<maaku>
looks like a mining payout
<maaku>
mined by f2pool, and wangchun was saying earlier that he was trying to keep certain transactions in mempool
<maaku>
this would explain it
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<tulip>
could be.
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<bramc>
Note to self: Don't forget about branch nodes. That's kind of an important case.
<bramc>
I now have notes on my memory format in a comment in the code instead of scrawled on paper. This feels like a big improvement.
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<maaku>
kanzure: "congrats, you invented ripple!"
<kanzure>
original ripple had a native digital currency?
<maaku>
kanzure: why does it need to be digital
<maaku>
original ripple would have involved someting akin to localbitcoins for the redemption of IOUs
<maaku>
what jonny hasn't figured out yet is that everyone involved can take the role imagined for the hub, Hector, here
<alpalp>
maaku: people convinced that LN requires hubs
<alpalp>
not sure how to break that misconception
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<maaku>
alpalp: would have helped if Poone didn't propagate that misconception in the very first descriptions of lightning ...
<coinoperated>
this is an interesting convo, I asked on Reddit a few months ago if LN was basically Ripple on top of Bitcoin, someone in the Ripple sub said yes though I don't recall their reasoning
<maaku>
coinoperated: not Ripple Labs. LN is not what Ripple Labs thinks ripple is.
<maaku>
but yes, it is exactly Ryan Fugger's ripple on bitcoin
<coinoperated>
so old ripple, pre XRP
<alpalp>
maaku: Need some fancy graphics and animations to show how it would work.
<alpalp>
point people to that.
<maaku>
alpalp: but can't really lay the blame on anyone because Poone and Tadge were extending "hub and spoke" payment channels as described by this community, which very much did require hubs
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<maaku>
so Poone was sortof talking to us, in our language, when he talked about hubs of a hub-and-spoke network, even thought LN really doesn't need hubs at all (and in fact, makes them rather uneconomical to run)
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<alpalp>
Explaining technical concepts to semi-technical people is probably one of the hardest things to do.
<kanzure>
there's no where on this planet where you have to first explain every detail about a thing you are working on before you work on it.
<alpalp>
kanzure: I'm not saying you have to explain every detail, but having a good source of information that explains things in a way they can understand that's accurate is beneficial.
<maaku>
LN lets you do "trustless ripple" by locking up the coins involved
<kanzure>
i have not seen a growth in the number of people able to explain payment channels
<maaku>
but there is in fact real benefit to the trustedform using IOUs as well
<kanzure>
or, rather, i mean, growth in the number of people who spend time explaining payment channels :-)
<maaku>
among other things you can bootstrap decentralized fiat this way
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<alpalp>
kanzure: it's certainly time consuming, and we have a lot of misconceptions due to poor choices of terminology early on that make it harder.
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<eragmus1>
just to confirm, maaku, re: "LN really doesn't need hubs at all (and in fact, makes them rather uneconomical to run)" — is the reason: velocity of money between hub & counterparties… vs. opportunity cost of hub locking money?
<eragmus1>
i think that's how poon described it at HK
<kanzure>
there are just nodes. hubs was a concept of a special type of node. but there are no special types now.
<instagibbs>
I think you should make it clear that there will be hubs, but only where it makes sense.
<instagibbs>
hubs as in "large nodes"
<kanzure>
what happened to the "in a few days" lightning mixnet announcement from a few days ago?
<eragmus1>
what is "mixnet"?
<coinoperated>
i think part of the challenge is that the people who are the natural audience for hearing such an explanation first have to be talked through their preexisting views on block size, to unwind them back to a point of suspended judgement on the subject
<kanzure>
mixnet is "mix network"
<kanzure>
(mixing)
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<coinoperated>
you have to meet people where they are
<eragmus1>
ah okay thanks
<kanzure>
coinoperated: no; you can theoretically understand payment channels even if you want a large max block size.
<kanzure>
desiring that other change does not make payment channels fundamentally different
<AdrianG>
is there any interest in bip47?
<eragmus1>
coinoperated: there is a meme that LN is blockstream created and operated and for-profit-for-blockstream — that creates mental block
<kanzure>
this is rapidly becoming off-topic
<coinoperated>
@kanzure: you can't if you are already convinced LN is a bandaid on small blocks.
<eragmus1>
AdrianG: samourai wallet is implementing bip47
<coinoperated>
@eragmus1 right
<kanzure>
coinoperated: payment channels are basically zero-conf transactions and literally nobody things that zero-conf is a bandaid on small block size.
<kanzure>
*thinks
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<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, payment channels also coalesce multiple smaller payments into a single larger payment
<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, i was on planes literally all day yesterday so no :P
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<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, without reading more than the abstract i would guess that it's a good idea and doomed to fail for entirely political reasons
<kanzure>
well.... i think it's more likely to fail due to competition from other lower-risk bonds.
<kanzure>
lower-risk probably-higher-yield bonds
<AdrianG>
eragmus1: it does not require any change in the core?
<eragmus1>
no, AdrianG, no change. it can work right now.
<phantomcircuit>
the principle obstacle to acquiring funds for biomedical research is that the window of time in which the result will be marketable and patent encumbered is typically only 2-5 years
<kanzure>
yes that is a big obstacle; but also, why bother with risk there when there are many other financial opportunities competing for your investment?
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<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, a structure that moves the ultimate beneficiaries further away from that reality is just going to make that a larger obstacle
<AdrianG>
phantomcircuit: 2-5 years?
<kanzure>
phantomcircuit: the reason why i was looking at this was to see what academia thought about funding for high (technical) risk projects. the conclusion seems to be "lol we have no idea".
<maaku>
eragmus1: it's because there is an opportunity cost for funds used by the hub that does not exist for direct user-to-user connections
<kanzure>
er, high (technical) risk projects that also happen to require lots and lots of capital
<maaku>
to use lightning you need to lock up funds approximately equal to your cash flow needs, which are funds that are going to be idle in hot or warm wallets anyway
<phantomcircuit>
AdrianG, patents are for 20 years and it takes 15-18 years to go from discovery to salable product
<maaku>
but the hub puts on its side of the channel it's own funds that it otherwise would have invested or whatever -- the hub itself does not transact
<AdrianG>
phantomcircuit: you can have multiple patents, on all sorts
<kanzure>
(more specifically: the conclusion is "securitization and sell debt in periodic bond issuances, try to minimize risk by increasing size of the portfolio, but individual project risk is not mitigated")
<AdrianG>
no way its 2 year window. 5+ is more realistic.
<kanzure>
((securitization of "research-backed obligations" (roalties and intellectual property stuff))
<kanzure>
*royalties
<eragmus1>
right, okay maaku thanks
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<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, the problem is really that many of these projects have a negative risk adjusted return
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<maaku>
so on a macro scale a hub requires twice as much total funds locked up, which is inefficient, and on a micro scale those extra funds are provided to the hub at cost by investors who give up opportunity.. so it's not obvious that running a hub makes economic sense
<kanzure>
even if it was a positive return i still think there are many other less risky opportunities for money to fund
<phantomcircuit>
it's just that nobody likes admitting that developing drugs to cure obscure cancers is a money losing proposition
<kanzure>
this is not a problem only for big pharma. basically lots of high tech stuff has this problem.
<eragmus1>
yeah maaku agreed
<kanzure>
hm well wait, i guess you are saying that the obscurity of the cancers, and the other abandoned rare diseases, have too low returns;
<eragmus1>
although i guess it depends how much traffic the hub gets maaku
<eragmus1>
the 'velocity' component.
<kanzure>
and other tech ventures might have broader addressable markets, so perhaps their risk adjusted return is better looking...... maybe.
<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, high tech projects requiring 100m+ in capital that are high risk but high return? uh like what?
<maaku>
eragmus1: to be certain hubs were pretty much required in pre-lightning payment networks to minimize # of hops, and minimize chance of getting stuck along the route
<eragmus1>
poon said he thinks network topology may be influenced by how the Lightning network begins its life
<AdrianG>
arent biggest costs of drug development marketing related?
<AdrianG>
and not R&D
<instagibbs>
lol dyson spheres
<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, im pretty sure we know how to build a dyson sphere :P
<kanzure>
why would marketing be drug development?
<instagibbs>
why not planet smashers too
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<AdrianG>
kanzure: because you need to push drugs you make
<kanzure>
phantomcircuit: there's a few missing steps (materials, mostly, and also the scaling of such an effort)... but yeah sorta.
<kanzure>
AdrianG: that is not drug development. go away.
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<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, there's actually a surprising amount of money going into brain machine interfacing because of prosthetics
<kanzure>
instagibbs: yeah i am working on planet smashers.
<maaku>
phantomcircuit: actually there are probably some pretty interesting problems in architecting a dyson sphere .. what kind of stress does a solar mass ejection cause?
<phantomcircuit>
maaku, i'd expect that you wouldn't actually enclose 100% of the sphere
<kanzure>
yes a dyson swarm is a better idea
<instagibbs>
I think swarm is best yeah
<coinoperated>
Dyson spheres are on topic?
<phantomcircuit>
1% would be sufficient to produce more energy than we're going to know what to do with for a very very long time
<coinoperated>
they're cool and all
<maaku>
coinoperated: haha nope
<kanzure>
dyson swarms are necessary for advanced bitcoin mining
<phantomcircuit>
:P
<kanzure>
because... reasons.
<maaku>
phantomcircuit: oh I can find uses :P
<coinoperated>
actually they are most likely anything but cool, but YNWIM
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<helo>
1) set up dyson swarm, 2) aim energy beam at competing miner fab plants
<brg444>
kanzure the sun is indeed a centralization concern....
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<kanzure>
docl has been looking into using high-energy lasers for influencing atmospheric chemistry of remote planets for long-range remote fabrication, but i don't think he has any funding yet
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<helo>
(be ready to capture incoming energy beam attack and store for ~free energy)
<coinoperated>
aka the plot of Titan AE
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<kanzure>
phantomcircuit: so your contention is that for non-big-pharma stuff, high risk tech projects are more likely to get funded as long as they have (way) better risk-adjusted returns compared to big pharma blockdud drugs?
<helo>
orly
* maaku
appreciates how kanzure said "this is rapidly going off topic" with respect to LN/Blockstream and then went on to discuss dyson spheres & big pharma
<zookolaptop>
I see that the wizards channel is living up to its name today.
<eragmus1>
lol maaku i noticed same :P
<zookolaptop>
lol
<kanzure>
maaku: no, the off-topic part was assuming that user misunderstanding of tech is a good reason to placate to their misunderstandings...
<kanzure>
09:46 < eragmus1> coinoperated: there is a meme that LN is blockstream created and operated and for-profit-for-blockstream — that creates mental block
<kanzure>
that stuff.
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<eragmus1>
they're not misunderstanding though, kanzure
<eragmus1>
humans are emotional creatures, mostly
<coinoperated>
it so happens that users pay the bills
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<eragmus1>
so blockstream FUD is very effective at creating mental/emotional block.
<kanzure>
this is still off-topic though.
<AdrianG>
kanzure: do you have data on how many drugs flunk out after multi-site phase 3/4 trials?
<coinoperated>
you aren't truly a full stack developer if you can't code ML at one end, and talk the VC's brother through his objections over your spelling of the logo at the other
<kanzure>
phantomcircuit: so, what's the actual conversion between high tech risk and necessary yield/return amount?
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<kanzure>
probably just a function of the other competing investment opportunities
<kanzure>
makes sense that some projects would be always inaccessible due to overly high risk and insufficient feasible returns.
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<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, afaict the people investing in high risk things are looking for 10x returns
<kanzure>
well "high risk" is relative though
<phantomcircuit>
1000:1
<kanzure>
who's making these odds? or er.. what? how do you even compare risks.
<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, that's the part that separates rich vcs from other vcs
<AdrianG>
so its basically lack of increases in effiency at clinical trial stage.
<kanzure>
clinical trial extreme costs, fda costs, lots and lots of ineffiency in regulation around this too. and insurance costs.
<AdrianG>
no wonder so many trials are done outside the US now.
<kanzure>
phantomcircuit: but they don't chase risk, they chase traction.
<AdrianG>
kanzure: phase 3+ thats just to gain market authorization.
<AdrianG>
these are all marketing/regulatory costs.
<phantomcircuit>
kanzure, sure, but someone somewhere took a risk before there was any traction
<maaku>
this should probably be on ##hplusroadmap, not wizards
<AdrianG>
i actually thought i was in hplus lo
<kanzure>
phantomcircuit: i don't know if that's true :-).
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<phantomcircuit>
>.>
<zooko>
What I like about twitter is that it is filtered on people, not filtered on topic.
<zooko>
And, that I get to choose my own set of people-filters, rather than subscribe to some set of people-filters maintained by a moderator or whatever.
<eragmus>
so AdrianG yes, more bip47 info is at that link i posted. let me know if you have other questions about it
<kanzure>
are you saying you like us
<zooko>
Basically, I'd rather talk about drug development with the people of #bitcoin-wizards than with the people of ##hplusroadmap
<zooko>
Oh well.
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<zooko>
Maybe I'll go talk about drug development with people on twitter.
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<eragmus>
lol. zooko it's not invalid. but wizards doesn't seem appropriate. instead, a room should be created all about 'off-topic but with bitcoiners' perhaps. i would definitely join.
<AdrianG>
eragmus: you are working on bip47?
<AdrianG>
or what is the root of your interest in it
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<alpalp>
block header and transactions
<alpalp>
oops
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<bramc>
I think I mentioned this already, but there are two things which seem to be missing from the roadmap: (1) Specific plans for when and how to roll out opt-in replace by fee, and (2) discussion of whether and when to roll out a 'not valid after' feature for transactions, although I think that one has some serious technical issues.