sipa changed the topic of #bitcoin-wizards to: This channel is for discussing theoretical ideas with regard to cryptocurrencies, not about short-term Bitcoin development | http://bitcoin.ninja/ | This channel is logged. | For logs and more information, visit http://bitcoin.ninja
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<maaku>
is there a list of non-linux UNIXen that bitcoind runs on?
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<srpx_>
What exactly are the odds a transaction is final after X confirmations? I can't find the precise numbers.
<sipa>
a good start would be the bitcoin whitepaper
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<srpx_>
sipa: yes it is there, thanks for answering my question without making it sound stupid
<sipa>
srpx_: it's more complicated than that though, depending on what you assume
<comsicthing51>
how can the odds be a fixed number?
<sipa>
if your assumptions are specific enough, the odds are specific too :)
<comsicthing51>
so you mean the odds numbers are based on the past performance, or theoretical "what ifs" ?
<andytoshi>
against an attacker with a fixed <50% amount of hashpower, the odds they will succeed can be defined very precisely. against a sufficiently funded attacker with >50% hashpower, ofc, all bets are off and they can rewrite the entire chain
<andytoshi>
comsicthing51: the numbers in the whitepaper are purely math.
<comsicthing51>
but what does math have to do with an unplanned event that isn't in the whitepaper?
<srpx_>
sipa: that's more or less what I wanted, though
<srpx_>
was just having a "debate" with someone claiming that raiblocks confirms a transaction in 0.001s
<srpx_>
and I'm trying to let him understand that whatever they mean by a "confirmation" is certainly not what he think it is
* srpx_
sighs
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<comsicthing51>
sipa, i was checking out the bitcoin source, and i noticed your name was in the credits for the dns seed stuff....is that your brainchild?
<comsicthing51>
i have some ideas about that
<kanzure>
just speak details
<comsicthing51>
i think there should be multicast routing used with bitcoin block chunks being broadcast from random nodes
<comsicthing51>
to seed new nodes
<comsicthing51>
random nodes could broadcast different parts of the blockchain
<comsicthing51>
to mulitcast
<comsicthing51>
instead of the dns seeds
<comsicthing51>
then each node can tune into whatever "broadcast" of blocks they need at any time to sync
<comsicthing51>
from randomfull nodes
<sipa>
that has really nothing to do with how peers find nodes
<comsicthing51>
they wouldnt have to find any nodes at all to sync
<comsicthing51>
they'd connect to multicast
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<comsicthing51>
sure, it's probably a lot more difficult than making clients connect to IRC or to a list of IP addresses, but it seems totally doable.
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<sipa>
comsicthing51: you may want to look into FIBRE
<comsicthing51>
i looked into that, but isnt that mostly used by miners?
<sipa>
yes, they're the ones who care about low latency propagation
<sipa>
well - it's in everyone's best interest that there is low latency between miners
<comsicthing51>
the main reason being orphaned blocks?
<sipa>
but few nodes care about having low latency themselves
<comsicthing51>
why is low latency most important?
<sipa>
mining on top of the previous while another miner already found a block is wasted
<sipa>
and more importantly, a collusion attacker doesn't suffer from delays in learning about other's blocks (because he only builds on top of his own blocks)
<sipa>
hence, all hash power wasted on already-outdated blocks by honest miners is a direct loss w.r.t. an attacker
<comsicthing51>
how much money does a large mining operation by mining 100ms after a block is already found?
<comsicthing51>
*how much do they lose?
<comsicthing51>
by continuing with 100ms after the block was found?
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<sipa>
there's a 0.016% chance that a block is found 100ms after the next
<sipa>
so 0.016% of their income
<comsicthing51>
so being late is mainly missed opportunity cost, not the cost of electric?
<belcher>
both, note that mining is zero sum so one miner's loss is all the other miner's gain
<comsicthing51>
has a block ever been found 100ms after the previous?
<comsicthing51>
or we are still waiting for the 0.016% chance to occur?
<belcher>
0.016% is once every 6250 blocks, so roughly every 43 days
<sipa>
comsicthing51: given that the delay on the network is much larger than that in practice, i suspect that the point is exactly that we wouldn't even know if it happened
<comsicthing51>
i didnt realize 100ms happened that frequently. im skeptical of that frequency, but, im skeptical of everything. nothing personal.
<sipa>
the public bitcoin P2P network is much closer to a random graph
<sipa>
so there are (ignoring special networks like FIBRE or special links between miners that know eachother) likely several hops between two miners
<sipa>
each hop will add a delay to propagation
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<comsicthing51>
i mean for like 200 bucks a month you could get a t1 direct connect between miners with like 3ms
<comsicthing51>
but i hear ya
<sipa>
assuming they're geographically close enough to each other
<comsicthing51>
they have wide area t1
<sipa>
3ms is not possible if you're more than 900km apart
<comsicthing51>
but it wouldnt be 3ms
<sipa>
speed of light
<sipa>
it's also more complicated because of selfish mining incentives
<sipa>
larger miners don't actually have that much of an incentive to propagate their blocks quickly
<sipa>
it's the rest of the network that cares about them doing so
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<jnewbery>
I'm trying to get my head around simplicity, but I don't have the background in sequent calculus or formal semantics. Anyone have any recommendations for books & resources to get started?
<meshcollider>
jnewbery: I think OPLSS is a really good lecture series on YouTube each year for formal logic like sequent calculus, etc.
<meshcollider>
By Frank pfenning and other top in the field researchers
<instagibbs>
meshcollider, link handy?
<Sentineo>
that would be really cool to get a link :)
<meshcollider>
The lectures are put on YouTube every year I think
<meshcollider>
It's quite a short and condensed series, but very good from what I remember of it
<jnewbery>
meshcollider: thanks. I'll take a look
<meshcollider>
And then a good book on type theory and stuff for PLT would be PFPL (practical foundations for programming languages) or TAPL (types and programming languages) I think
<meshcollider>
They focus on using formal logic in type systems rather than sequent calculus in formal logic directly IIRC
<meshcollider>
Quite dense stuff though so pick and choose chapters which are useful :)
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